Introduction

COP31, the UN climate conference held in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20, 2026, will test whether governments can turn existing climate commitments into delivery. Its negotiating agenda centers on adaptation and on delivering the climate finance goal agreed at COP29, while the Türkiye-led Presidency is promoting voluntary 2035 targets headed by a goal to raise electricity’s share of final energy demand to 35%. The stakes are high because the UNFCCC’s 2026 synthesis shows national pledges remain substantially off track for 1.5°C. The summit also opens the second Global Stocktake and runs under a split Türkiye-Australia presidency, the first arrangement of its kind.

This guide reflects information available as of October 30, 2026, before negotiations begin, so all outcomes described here are expectations rather than results.

Key Takeaways

• COP31 runs November 9 to 20, 2026, in Antalya under a split presidency: Türkiye hosts and leads the Action Agenda, and Australia steers the formal negotiations.
• Adaptation and climate finance are the most contested negotiating issues, including the commitment made at COP30 to triple adaptation finance by 2035 and the climate finance goal agreed at COP29 in Baku.
• Fossil fuel phase-out is not a formal agenda item, while the Presidency’s voluntary flagship target aims to raise electricity’s share of final energy demand to 35% by 2035.
• The summit launches the second Global Stocktake, so decisions taken in Antalya will shape climate policy through the next accountability cycle ending at COP33 in 2028.

What Is COP31 and When Is It Held?

COP31 is the 31st Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, held at the Antalya Expo Center in Türkiye from November 9 to 20, 2026. Organizers describe it as an “implementation COP,” focused on delivering commitments already made rather than negotiating major new treaties.

Leadership is split between two countries for the first time. Türkiye hosts the summit and leads the voluntary Action Agenda under COP31 President Murat Kurum, while Australia’s Chris Bowen serves as President of Negotiations, where decisions require consensus among all parties. According to UNU-EHS, the summit also launches the second Global Stocktake, which concludes at COP33 in 2028.

Global Context Ahead of COP31

COP31 opens amid an energy shock that links to war in the Middle East, higher fuel and food costs and severe climate disasters. Consensus on fossil fuels has also fractured: about 60 nations held a breakaway conference outside the UN process this year, and the COP33 host remains undecided.

What Is on the COP31 Agenda?

Most of the formal COP31 negotiations deal with detailed, unfinished work inherited from earlier summits, and adaptation and climate finance are expected to be the most contested areas. Fossil fuel phase-out is not a formal agenda item, while carbon markets and the link between trade and climate policy will also feature in Antalya.

Adaptation and the Global Goal on Adaptation

Adaptation is expected to be a key test for COP31. At the June 2026 Bonn talks, parties could not agree on the Global Goal on Adaptation, leaving two open questions for Antalya: how to advance the 59 adaptation indicators adopted at COP30, and how to deliver the commitment to at least triple adaptation finance for developing countries by 2035.

In Bonn, developing countries sought to write the tripling pledge into the adaptation text, while Canada, Norway, and Japan opposed the addition, according to the Earth Negotiations Bulletin. Countries also disagreed on whether experts or governments should run the taskforce building the adaptation indicators. WRI notes that negotiators need enough progress in Antalya to finalize the Global Goal on Adaptation at COP32.

The host wants adaptation at the center of the summit. Halil Hasar, Türkiye’s chief climate diplomacy officer for COP31, told Daily Sabah that the biggest challenge is the gap between national adaptation plans and their implementation.

Climate Finance and the New Collective Quantified Goal

Daily Sabah reports that climate finance is likely to be one of the most difficult issues at COP31. The New Collective Quantified Goal agreed at COP29 in Baku targets at least $300 billion a year for developing countries by 2035, led by developed countries, within a wider call to reach $1.3 trillion a year from all sources.

Developing countries want the finance work programme launched at COP30 to focus on Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement, so that wealthy countries are pressed to deliver public funding. In Bonn, the EU, Switzerland, Canada, Japan, and other developed countries stressed that the programme covers climate finance broadly, including Article 9.1 in the context of Article 9 as a whole, according to the Earth Negotiations Bulletin.

COP31 President Murat Kurum has called closing the climate finance “chasm” a key priority. In an August interview with Bloomberg, he said elevating carbon markets will be among COP31’s objectives, and that if governments put demand-enabling policies in place, growth in the voluntary carbon market could deliver more than $50 billion a year in additional, debt-free finance for developing economies by 2030.

Fossil Fuel Transition

The transition away from fossil fuels is politically central but procedurally absent. AFP reports that countries have made little headway on agreeing timelines or routes for moving off coal, oil, and gas, and the topic does not appear as a negotiating item at COP31. Brazil is expected to publish a voluntary roadmap instead.

Bowen has framed electrification as a mechanism to transition away from fossil fuels, signaling that the issue may be addressed indirectly through the Action Agenda rather than through negotiated text.

Carbon Markets and Trade

Carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and the relationship between trade and climate policy both remain live issues. COP30 created a UNFCCC dialogue on trade and climate, and the first session took place on June 13 during the Bonn talks. UNU-EHS identifies carbon border adjustment policies as a focus of these ongoing discussions.

Country and Bloc Positions at COP31

Negotiating positions heading into Antalya divide largely along finance and adaptation lines. The African Group is pushing for dedicated agenda space on adaptation finance and trade, while the European Union is pressing for faster emissions reductions and frames the adaptation finance pledge within the broader finance goal agreed at COP29.

The African Group has asked the UN to open a formal space at COP31 with agenda items on tripling adaptation finance, trade and climate change, and the financing arrangements of the Green Climate Fund, setting up a possible agenda fight on the opening day, according to Climate Home News. Its chair, Antwi-Boasiako Amoah, wrote that “a dedicated item is needed.

The European Union reaffirmed the call to triple adaptation finance in its agreed negotiating position but framed it within the New Collective Quantified Goal, according to Climate Home News. Climate Current reports that the EU is also pressing for faster emissions reductions. In Bonn, however, the EU, supported by Norway, Canada, Switzerland, Japan, and the UK, called for no-text options on two paragraphs of the adaptation text that referenced tripling adaptation finance, according to the Earth Negotiations Bulletin.

South Africa has identified adaptation as a major negotiating priority. According to Daily Maverick, its negotiators will push for a benchmark to triple adaptation finance by 2035, the operationalization of the Global Goal on Adaptation, and adequate loss and damage funding. Environment Minister David Maynier has said a just transition remains central to South Africa’s approach.

COP31 Action Agenda and 2035 Targets

Alongside the negotiations, the Türkiye-led Presidency has launched a voluntary Action Agenda with measurable 2035 targets. Its flagship goal raises the share of final energy demand met by electricity from just over 20% to 35% by 2035, supported by targets on waste, buildings, and circular materials and by a voluntary pledge on AI.

The “35% by 2035” Electrification Target

Murat Kurum announced the target at the Bonn Climate Change Conference on June 9, 2026, calling for a major shift from direct fossil fuel use to clean electricity across buildings, transport, and industry. According to the COP31 Presidency, the target is based on analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

The Presidency and Australia have commissioned the IEA to produce special reports mapping pathways to the target, and the Presidency has committed to building a global coalition to act on it. It has since launched the target as the 35-by-35 Pledge in New York, alongside the Antalya AI Pledge. IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera noted that IRENA’s own roadmap explicitly suggests 35% global electrification by 2035.

The target has also drawn criticism. Around one-third of global electricity still comes from coal, and the target does not specify how the additional power should be generated, AFP reports. Greenpeace welcomed the initiative but said it must be coupled with a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels.

Waste, Buildings, and Circular Materials

The Presidency set a goal to halve the growth in global waste by 2035, citing food waste as responsible for 10% of global emissions, mainly through methane, which it describes as 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide over roughly 20 years. A Resilient Cities target aims to cut energy consumption intensity in buildings by at least 25% by 2035.

At the June 9 press conference, Kurum also set an aim for manufacturing: raising the global circular material use rate to at least 15% by 2035. The wider Action Agenda also covers food security, youth participation, health, and climate education.

The Climate Implementation Bridge

As Kurum described it at the June 9 launch, the Climate Implementation Bridge aims to help countries turn their Nationally Determined Contributions into investable project portfolios, so climate finance reaches projects faster. The Presidency intends the Action Agenda to leave a legacy that continues through COP32 in Ethiopia and beyond, toward meeting its targets by 2035.

The Antalya AI Pledge

The Presidency has also published the Antalya AI Pledge, developed with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), to reduce the environmental footprint of AI and expand its use for climate action. It is due to be formally launched during COP31 at a high-level roundtable on AI convened with the ITU and is explicitly voluntary.

The pledge is open to governments, companies, investors, financial institutions, research bodies, local governments, and civil society, and states that it creates no new obligations. Its four pillars cover sustainable AI infrastructure, including a higher share of zero- and low-emission energy and more efficient use of power and water; responsible design and procurement across the AI lifecycle, including e-waste; assessment and reporting of AI’s environmental impact; and support for AI applications in climate action, with priority for developing countries, least developed countries, and small island developing states.

An annex for non-government participants offers optional commitments to assess and disclose the environmental impact of AI systems, require their providers of AI systems and services to disclose energy and environmental impact data, and evaluate the net greenhouse gas impact of AI used for climate purposes. Participants set some targets and deadlines themselves, so the pledge has no common reduction rate or target year.

The context is rising electricity demand. The IEA’s 2026 report Key Questions on Energy and AI projects global data center electricity consumption roughly doubling from 485 TWh in 2025 to 950 TWh in 2030, about 3% of global electricity demand.

Reaction has been mixed. WRI welcomed the pledge for addressing both AI’s climate potential and its burdens on power, water, and communities, but said it lacks accountability mechanisms; NRDC called it an important start that needs stronger enforcement. The pledge invites signatories to take stock of their collective progress at each COP from COP32 until 2030.

Key Outcomes to Watch at COP31

Because COP31 carries few headline negotiating items, its success will be measured by progress on implementation. The clearest signals will come from the opening agenda, adaptation, and finance, and from how widely countries back the voluntary Action Agenda targets announced by the Türkiye-led Presidency.

• The opening-day agenda: whether the African Group’s three requested agenda items are adopted or moved into consultations led by the Presidency, which Climate Home News notes often happens with disputed items.
• Adaptation: progress on the 59 indicators adopted at COP30 and a concrete roadmap for tripling adaptation finance by 2035, which Türkiye’s chief climate diplomacy officer has named as an aim for the summit.
• Climate finance: how the finance work programme proceeds, given developing countries’ focus on Article 9.1 and developed countries’ broader reading, and what signals emerge on delivering the COP29 finance goal.
• The electrification coalition: how many countries commit to the “35% by 2035” target, and what the IEA’s commissioned pathway reports conclude.
• The Antalya AI Pledge: how many governments and companies sign on at its launch during COP31, and whether participants publish concrete targets and data.
• Fossil fuels: the content of Brazil’s voluntary transition roadmap and how the roughly 60 nations from the breakaway conference engage in Antalya.
• COP33: whether a host emerges for 2028, although AFP notes that a decision does not have to be taken this year.

None of these outcomes is decided as of October 30, 2026. The summit closes on November 20.

COP31 Implications for Governments, Investors, and Companies

COP31’s outcomes will reach beyond negotiators. Governments face pressure to translate NDCs into law and projects, investors are being invited into country-led project pipelines, and companies operate in a policy environment where electrification, methane controls, and carbon markets are gaining ground in national plans.

For governments, the 2026 NDC Synthesis Report shows implementation becoming a whole-of-economy effort. 98% of Parties report engaging non-Party stakeholders in NDC implementation, up from 70% in previous NDCs, and the private sector is often positioned as a co-implementer or financier.

For investors, the Climate Implementation Bridge aims to turn NDCs into investable project portfolios, and WRI expects growing attention outside the negotiations on country platforms that unlock public and private finance behind national priorities. Kurum has also pointed to the voluntary carbon market as a potential source of more than $50 billion a year in additional finance by 2030, provided governments put demand-enabling policies in place.

For companies, the Presidency’s own materials describe businesses investing in electric industrial processes as part of the electrification shift. Where that shift increases purchased electricity, the related emissions are reported as Scope 2 under the GHG Protocol, which, under its current Scope 2 Guidance, requires both location-based and market-based figures where contractual instruments exist. Measures to reduce methane from energy supply, reported by 62% of Parties, and the ongoing UNFCCC dialogue on trade and climate add further areas to monitor.

Conclusion: Preparing for the Post-Antalya Climate Agenda

COP31 is unlikely to produce a landmark treaty, yet its decisions on adaptation and finance, and the reach of its voluntary 2035 targets, will shape national climate policy through the next Global Stocktake. With pledges at 6% to 9% below 2019 levels, the UNFCCC report concludes that collective progress remains substantially off track for 1.5°C.

For executive leadership, the summit is a timely prompt to review climate strategy against the direction governments are signaling. Practical next steps include initiating ESG strategy planning that reflects the policy signals from Antalya, strengthening carbon accounting across Scope 1 and Scope 2 as electrification changes energy use, and assessing exposure to emerging methane, trade, and carbon market rules.

We will update this guide after COP31 closes on November 20, 2026.

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