Introduction

Global greenhouse gas emissions must fall 18 percent by 2030, 45 percent by 2035 and 69 percent by 2040 compared with 2025 levels, a pace of nearly 6 percent per year. Energy efficiency is one of the central levers, with primary energy intensity of GDP required to fall at least 30 percent by 2035. These benchmarks come from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, published on October 21, 2026.

For executives, the report matters because every global benchmark eventually becomes a question about corporate energy use, Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions, and the credibility of Net Zero targets. This article explains what UNEP found, how the benchmarks compare with the targets companies have set, and which decisions should follow.

Key Takeaways

• UNEP finds that holding warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot is gone; the best remaining pathway limits peak warming to 1.7-1.8°C and returns to 1.5°C by 2100 with about a 50 percent chance.
• Returning to 1.5°C requires global emissions cuts of 18 percent by 2030, 45 percent by 2035 and 69 percent by 2040 against 2025 levels.
• Energy efficiency is a core benchmark: primary energy intensity of GDP must fall at least 30 percent by 2035 relative to 2025.
• Because the benchmarks are measured from 2025, an accurate 2025 Scope 1, Scope 2 and Scope 3 baseline is now a strategic asset for any company setting or reviewing a decarbonization target.

How Much Progress Has the World Made on Decarbonization?

Global decarbonization progress is real but insufficient. UNEP reports that emissions rose 0.8 percent a year on average over the past decade and were roughly flat in 2025, while renewable deployment has outpaced forecasts. The chance of holding warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot is gone.

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report is an annual, science-based assessment published since 2010. According to UNEP, it measures the gap between projected global emissions if countries implement their climate pledges and the level needed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

The 2026 edition concludes that warming will pass 1.5°C. Its “lowest possible” overshoot scenario limits peak warming to 1.7-1.8°C around mid-century and returns global temperature to or below 1.5°C by 2100, with about a 50 percent chance. That outcome requires both sustained emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal.

It is too early to confirm a peak in global emissions. UNEP states that global emissions in 2025 were roughly the same as in 2024. Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels rose in 2025, while methane emissions stayed the same.

The progress signals are significant. UNEP reports that solar photovoltaic deployment grew seven times faster than anticipated, and wind expansion outpaced the most optimistic forecasts. The report also identifies 63 structural changes, from renewable energy investment to carbon taxes, that have helped bring emissions down significantly.

How Fast Must Emissions Fall Between 2025 and 2035?

To return warming to 1.5°C by 2100, UNEP’s lowest overshoot pathway requires global emissions to fall 18 percent by 2030, 45 percent by 2035 and 69 percent by 2040 against 2025 levels. That equals annual reductions of nearly 6 percent, far beyond what current national pledges deliver.

UNEP describes this pace as more strenuous than the reductions laid out in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s most recent assessment report. The reason is delay. According to UNEP, every five years of carbon dioxide emissions at current levels pushes warming up by around 0.1°C.

The “nearly 6 percent” figure is a compound rate, applied each year to the previous year’s emissions. Calculated from UNEP’s benchmarks, a 45 percent cut over ten years equals about 5.8 percent a year in compound terms, or 4.5 percent of 2025 emissions per year in linear terms. The pathway is also back-loaded: the 18 percent cut by 2030 implies about 3.9 percent a year from 2025 to 2030, rising to about 7.7 percent a year from 2030 to 2035.

The gap between required action and current commitments is wide. Under current government policies, UNEP projects warming of 2.8°C by the end of the century. Full delivery of Paris Agreement commitments would reduce this to 2.6°C, and adding national Net Zero targets could limit warming to 2.1°C.

According to the UNEP press release, full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would cut global emissions by only 5-8 percent by 2030 and 11-15 percent by 2035, relative to 2025. The required cut for 2035 is 45 percent.

UNEP measures all of its 2030, 2035 and 2040 benchmarks against 2025 levels. For companies, this places new weight on the quality of 2025 emissions data.

Energy Efficiency Targets for 2035: Why Energy Intensity Must Fall 30%

Energy efficiency is one of the most direct levers companies control. Extending the Global Stocktake goal of doubling the annual rate of energy efficiency improvement by 2030, UNEP’s benchmark pathway requires primary energy intensity of GDP to fall at least 30 percent by 2035 and at least 40 percent by 2040, relative to 2025.

The benchmark builds on commitments countries have already made. The first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement set goals to triple global renewable energy capacity, double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvement by 2030, transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, reduce non-CO₂ emissions, and halt and reverse deforestation. UNEP extends these goals to 2035 and 2040 to match its lowest overshoot pathway.

According to the UNEP press release, extending the renewable energy and energy efficiency goals to 2035 implies reducing primary energy intensity of GDP by at least 30 percent relative to 2025 levels. For 2040, the energy intensity benchmark rises to a reduction of at least 40 percent.

Two distinctions matter when translating this benchmark into corporate practice. UNEP’s indicator is primary energy per unit of global GDP, a macroeconomic measure rather than a corporate KPI. Energy intensity also differs from absolute emissions: a company that grows output can improve its energy intensity while its absolute emissions still rise.

At the company level, energy intensity means the energy consumed per unit of output or revenue. Tracking it helps identify efficiency gains at the facility and process level, in fuels burned on site (Scope 1) and in purchased electricity and heat (Scope 2). Progress toward climate targets should still be judged on absolute emissions in tCO2e, measured consistently against a fixed baseline year.

Renewable Energy, Coal Phase-Down and Methane: Sector Benchmarks for 2035 and 2040

Beyond efficiency, UNEP sets benchmarks for renewable capacity, fossil fuel share, coal power and methane. By 2035, renewable electricity capacity must at least triple and the share of coal in total energy supply must fall at least 55 percent from 2025 levels, with coal power effectively phased out globally by 2040.

The UNEP press release sets out the following benchmarks relative to 2025:

• Renewable electricity capacity at least triples by 2035 and reaches at least 4.5 times the 2025 level by 2040.
• The share of coal, oil and gas in total energy supply falls by at least 55, 15 and 5 percent by 2035, and by at least 75, 30 and 35 percent by 2040.
• Electricity generation from coal falls by at least 75 percent by 2035 and is effectively phased out globally by 2040.
• Methane emissions are at least 25 percent lower by 2035 and at least 40 percent lower by 2040.

UNEP presents these figures as a preliminary assessment of how the first Global Stocktake goals could be extended to 2035 and 2040, consistent with its lowest overshoot scenario.

These benchmarks shape the electricity companies buy. As grids add renewable capacity and reduce coal generation, the emissions intensity of purchased electricity, and therefore Scope 2 emissions, depends increasingly on where and how a company sources power.

Electricity demand is also a pressure point. According to TIME, the report singles out the United States as an outlier, linking its emissions growth to increased electricity demand, partly from data centers, and to policies that favored fossil fuels over clean energy.

What Should Executives Prioritize in Their Next Decarbonization Roadmap?

Executives should sequence action around data first. Establish an accurate 2025 baseline for Scope 1 and Scope 2, locate energy intensity hotspots, set annual reduction milestones that can be tracked against the global pace, and extend measurement to Scope 3 suppliers to cover the full value chain.

1. Establish a 2025 baseline. UNEP’s benchmarks are measured from 2025. A complete, auditable inventory of 2025 Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions makes every later comparison credible.
2. Locate energy intensity hotspots. With global energy intensity required to fall at least 30 percent by 2035, facility-level and process-level energy data shows where efficiency investment delivers the largest reductions.
3. Set annual milestones. A target expressed as an annual reduction rate can be tracked each year against the global pathway, which requires about 3.9 percent a year to 2030 and about 7.7 percent a year from 2030 to 2035 in compound terms, giving the board an early warning when progress slips.
4. Extend measurement to Scope 3. Supplier emissions sit outside direct control, so collecting supplier-level data takes time and should start early.

Policy direction reinforces this sequence. UNEP credits 63 structural changes, including renewable energy investment and carbon taxes, with significant emission reductions, and states that the lowest overshoot pathway requires replicating such policies globally and across all sectors of the economy.

Conclusion: Turning Global Benchmarks Into Measurable Corporate Action

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026 sets clear global benchmarks: emissions down 45 percent and energy intensity down at least 30 percent by 2035, both against 2025. Each benchmark depends on decisions made inside companies, and each decision depends on accurate energy and emissions data.

The report shows that the window for limiting overshoot narrows with every year of delay. It also shows that policies and technologies already deployed have cut emissions in measurable ways. Companies that know their 2025 baseline, track energy intensity at the facility level, and measure Scope 3 across their supply chain will be positioned to set credible targets and demonstrate progress.

ASUENE supports executive teams through this process with carbon accounting that covers Scope 1, Scope 2 and Scope 3 emissions, from baseline calculation to supplier data collection. To assess how your current decarbonization target compares with the 2035 benchmarks, contact ASUENE to begin a Scope 1, 2 and 3 measurement review.

Why Work with ASUENE Inc.?

ASUENE is a key player in carbon accounting, offering a comprehensive platform that measures, reduces, and reports emissions, including Scope 1-3. ASUENE serves over 56,000 clients worldwide, providing an all-in-one solution that integrates GHG accounting, ESG supply chain management, a Carbon Credit exchange platform, and third-party verification.

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