Introduction

On October 27, 2026, the European Commission proposed the European Climate Resilience Law, a Regulation that establishes a common EU framework for anticipating and managing climate risks. It sets a reference global warming trajectory of 1.5°C by 2030, 2°C by 2050 and 3°C by 2100, and requires every Member State to carry out climate risk assessments and adopt a single strategic plan on climate resilience. For companies, the Commission’s guidance that this trajectory should be the baseline assumption for decisions on policies, assets and investments is the clearest planning signal in the package.

The proposal follows a 2026 summer in which wildfires burned about 700,000 hectares of land and preliminary figures show more than 35,000 heat-related deaths in reporting countries.

Key Takeaways

• The proposed European Climate Resilience Law sets a reference global warming trajectory of 1.5°C by 2030, 2°C by 2050 and 3°C by 2100 as the common baseline for climate planning across the EU.
• Member States must complete national climate risk assessments by June 30, 2029 and adopt a single national strategic plan on climate resilience, with named risk owners, by December 31, 2030.
• Annual EU economic losses from climate extremes stood at around EUR 50 billion over the past four years, up from EUR 8.6 billion in 1980–1989, according to the European Commission.
• The law places binding duties on public authorities only, while the Commission states it will continue to support corporates in integrating climate risks into their transition and climate resilience plans.

What Is the European Climate Resilience Law?

The European Climate Resilience Law is a proposed Regulation, published by the European Commission on October 27, 2026, that establishes a common EU framework for anticipating and managing climate risks. It sets binding rules for the EU and Member State public authorities, defines a shared resilience objective, and helps implement the adaptation provisions of the European Climate Law.

Under Article 1, the framework sets a common resilience objective and reference trajectory, a common approach to climate risk assessment, named public authorities for each major risk, and cooperation on transboundary risks. As a Regulation, it would be directly applicable in all Member States once adopted (Article 16).

Companies are not directly regulated. The Impact Assessment confirms that no direct obligations are imposed on the private sector, while the Explanatory Memorandum states that the proposal seeks to improve private sector awareness of climate risks.

Reference Global Warming Trajectory: 1.5°C by 2030, 2°C by 2050, 3°C by 2100

The reference global warming trajectory is the common planning baseline set by Article 4 and Annex I of the proposed law: 1.5°C by 2030, 2°C by 2050 and 3°C by the end of the 21st century, relative to the 1850–1900 average. Climate risk assessments and strategic plans must use it, and public authorities are encouraged to apply it.

The values reflect current evidence rather than policy targets. Under current global policy commitments, warming is projected to reach around 2°C by 2050 and around 3°C by the end of the century, and Europe is warming at around twice the global average rate.

The Communication extends the trajectory beyond public administration: it should be the baseline assumption when making decisions about policies, assets and investments, with more detailed risk assessments and risk tolerance determining final choices. The Commission may update the values by delegated act on the advice of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (Article 12), and the new European Climate Viewer converts the trajectory into localized hazard information.

What Do the New Climate Risk Assessments and Strategic Plans Require, and When?

The proposed law creates a five-year cycle of climate risk assessment and strategic planning. The European Environment Agency assesses EU-level risks by June 30, 2028, Member States assess national risks by June 30, 2029, and each Member State adopts a single national strategic plan with named risk owners by December 31, 2030.

Assessments must use at least the reference trajectory and cover extremes, tail risks, tipping points, and cascading and compounding risks (Annex II). They must also address the 13 policy areas in Annex III, which include critical energy, transport, communication and water systems, buildings, public health, food security, budgetary policies and financial systems.

Each national strategic plan replaces four existing instruments: national adaptation strategies and plans, and the adaptation elements of National Energy and Climate Plans and Long-Term Strategies. It must name a policy risk owner, the public authority responsible for each major climate risk (Article 7(6)), and address the tolerability of residual risk.

The Business Cost of Climate Risk in Europe: Losses, Exposure and Investment Needs

Climate extremes already impose large and rising costs on the European economy. The Commission reports annual losses of around EUR 50 billion in the past four years, up from EUR 8.6 billion in 1980–1989, while companies disclosing to CDP reported nearly EUR 2.6 billion in extreme-weather losses in 2025 alone.

The evidence falls into two groups. Losses to date measure damage already recorded, while forward-looking figures capture what companies expect and what adaptation will require. Because the periods and scopes differ, the two tables below should be read separately rather than compared directly.

Preparedness lags behind this exposure. Citing S&P Global, the Impact Assessment describes climate resilience and adaptation planning in leading European companies as “nascent.”

Climate Risk Management Priorities for Executives Acting in 2026

The law places no direct duties on companies, but the Commission states that the reference trajectory should be the baseline for decisions on assets and investments. Executives can act now by adopting that baseline, using the EU’s climate risk tools, and building physical climate risk into transition plans and carbon accounting.

1. Adopt the reference trajectory as your planning baseline. The Communication states that it should be the baseline assumption for decisions on policies, assets and investments, with more detailed risk assessments and risk tolerance determining final choices. The proposed law also pairs the trajectory with systematic stress-testing against more adverse scenarios (Recital 9), so test critical assets beyond 3°C.
   
2. Map physical climate risk across sites and suppliers. Use the European Climate Viewer, the Navigator of Climate Resilience Tools and the Mission Solutions Explorer; the Impact Assessment expects losses to spread across systems that businesses depend on, such as infrastructure and supply chains.
   
3. Build climate risk into transition plans. The Commission will continue to support corporates in integrating climate risks into their transition and climate resilience plans through guidance and practical assistance.
   
4. Connect physical risk with carbon accounting. As ASUENE’s recommendation rather than a legal requirement, link climate risk data with Scope 1, Scope 2 and Scope 3 measurement so your Net Zero strategy reflects the risks facing the same assets and suppliers.

Conclusion: Climate Resilience by Design Starts in Corporate Planning

The European Climate Resilience Law would make anticipatory climate risk management the standard for EU public authorities, anchored in a 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C reference trajectory. Companies are not directly regulated, but the same trajectory, tools and risk data will shape the environment in which they plan, invest and operate.

The Commission will start implementing the approach immediately, and it states that decisions on infrastructure, investment and energy taken now will determine Europe’s capability to withstand adverse climate conditions for decades. The same holds for corporate decisions on sites, suppliers and capital.

ASUENE helps companies build the data foundation for this work. With ASUENE for carbon accounting and Scope 1, Scope 2 and Scope 3 measurement, and ASUENE SUPPLY CHAIN for supplier programs, your organization can align its Net Zero strategy with a clear view of climate risk. Contact ASUENE to start planning your integrated climate strategy today.

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ASUENE is a key player in carbon accounting, offering a comprehensive platform that measures, reduces, and reports emissions, including Scope 1-3. ASUENE serves over 56,000 clients worldwide, providing an all-in-one solution that integrates GHG accounting, ESG supply chain management, a Carbon Credit exchange platform, and third-party verification.

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