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Industry Spotlight: CBAM’s Effect on the Global Steel Market

Regulation
Industry Spotlight: CBAM’s Effect on the Global Steel Market
Article Summary

Introduction

The European Union is entering a new phase of climate policy with the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This initiative is designed to ensure that ambitious European decarbonization efforts are not undermined by imports produced in jurisdictions with less stringent environmental rules. By addressing the issue of carbon leakage, CBAM creates a more level playing field between EU producers who face rising carbon costs under the Emissions Trading System (ETS) and foreign competitors.

The steel industry is at the heart of this policy. As one of the world’s most carbon-intensive sectors, responsible for approximately 7% of global CO₂ emissions, steel has long been a priority in climate strategies. In the EU, where heavy industry is deeply integrated into global supply chains, CBAM’s influence will be particularly pronounced. The measure is not just about placing a price on imported emissions. It is about shaping the next chapter of industrial competitiveness, fostering investment in low-carbon steelmaking, and embedding climate ambition into the fabric of European trade.


The mechanics of CBAM and its direct impact on steel

CBAM applies initially to high-emission sectors such as steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen. Steel, however, represents the most strategically significant of these due to its scale, trade exposure, and role in downstream industries like automotive and construction.

Under CBAM, importers must declare the emissions embedded in their steel products and purchase CBAM certificates reflecting the prevailing EU ETS carbon price. The mechanism ensures that imported steel faces a similar cost structure to domestically produced steel, which has long been subject to emissions trading obligations.

The financial implications are significant. Traditional blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) steel production emits around 2 tons of CO₂ per ton of steel, while electric arc furnace (EAF) production emits less than 0.5 tons, depending on grid mix. As EU ETS prices hover around €80 per ton of CO₂, the resulting cost differential creates a decisive incentive to shift toward cleaner methods.

Steel Production RouteAverage CO₂ Emissions (tCO₂/ton steel)EU ETS Price (€/tCO₂)Added CBAM Cost (€/ton steel)
BF-BOF (conventional)2.080160
Electric Arc Furnace0.48032
Hydrogen-based DRI0.1808

This table illustrates the direct cost penalties imposed on carbon-intensive production routes. While European producers are already transitioning away from coal-based steelmaking, CBAM makes it clear that foreign suppliers will face equivalent pressure if they wish to remain competitive in the EU market.


Trade realignment and EU industrial competitiveness

CBAM does more than place a price on emissions. It also reconfigures the competitive landscape of Europe’s industrial ecosystem. By internalizing the carbon cost of imports, the EU protects its domestic steelmakers from being undercut by cheaper, carbon-heavy steel from abroad.

For European producers, CBAM offers breathing space to accelerate decarbonization investments. The industry has already committed billions toward new hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) plants, expanded use of scrap in EAF processes, and integration of carbon capture technologies. Without CBAM, such initiatives might struggle against low-cost imports. With it, green steel has a stronger chance of gaining a foothold in the market.

This protective effect is particularly important for the automotive and construction sectors, which depend heavily on steel. As large buyers, these industries are facing pressure from investors, regulators, and customers to reduce their own Scope 3 emissions. CBAM reinforces their ability to procure lower-carbon steel domestically, supporting the development of resilient, low-emission supply chains within the EU.

At the same time, global trade flows will adjust. Countries exporting steel to Europe will need to either decarbonize their production or risk losing access to one of the world’s most lucrative markets. Some may redirect their exports to less regulated regions, but Europe’s demand for verified green steel will increasingly define premium segments of the global steel trade.


Investment, innovation, and stakeholder responses

The financial and technological ripple effects of CBAM are already being felt. The policy strengthens the business case for innovation, directing capital toward solutions that reduce carbon intensity.

  • Technology innovation: Companies are accelerating investments in hydrogen-based steelmaking, enhanced recycling systems, and CCUS projects. Pilot projects across Sweden, Germany, and France are demonstrating pathways to near-zero emissions steel production.
  • Investor dynamics: Financial institutions now view carbon exposure as a material risk. CBAM highlights that companies relying on outdated, carbon-heavy production methods face structural disadvantages, while innovators are positioned for growth.
  • Corporate procurement: Automotive giants, renewable energy developers, and infrastructure firms are increasingly demanding certified green steel, using procurement power to amplify CBAM’s effect.
  • Policy ripple effects: Other jurisdictions, including the United States and the United Kingdom, are debating their own border carbon adjustments. CBAM may serve as a template for aligning trade policy with climate ambition globally.

Challenges and pathways for cooperation

Despite its promise, CBAM is not without challenges. Critics argue that it risks being perceived as a protectionist measure, especially by developing economies that lack the resources to rapidly decarbonize heavy industry. The complexity of calculating embedded emissions across global steel supply chains also creates administrative burdens for both exporters and EU importers.

Another pressing issue is the World Trade Organization (WTO) dimension. Legal challenges are possible, particularly if countries argue that CBAM discriminates against foreign producers. For CBAM to endure, it must demonstrate transparency, fairness, and consistency with international trade law.

To mitigate these risks, the EU is pursuing dialogue with trade partners and exploring mechanisms to support developing countries in decarbonization. Financial assistance, technology transfer, and standardized emissions accounting frameworks could help turn CBAM into a platform for collaboration rather than conflict.

The steel sector, given its size and strategic importance, may become a proving ground for this balance of ambition and cooperation. By embedding climate responsibility into trade, the EU sets a precedent that other regions may eventually follow, potentially leading to a more harmonized global carbon pricing regime.


Conclusion

CBAM is a milestone in the EU’s climate and trade policy, and the steel industry sits at the center of its impact. By pricing the carbon content of imports, CBAM protects European producers, incentivizes foreign suppliers to decarbonize, and accelerates investment in green technologies. At the same time, it raises challenges related to trade relations, administrative complexity, and fairness for emerging economies.

For Europe, however, the broader picture is one of strategic advantage. CBAM not only strengthens the EU’s climate leadership but also supports the creation of competitive, low-carbon industrial value chains. Steelmakers that adapt quickly, by embracing hydrogen, expanding recycling, and improving transparency,will define the next generation of European industry.

As the world’s first comprehensive border carbon adjustment takes effect, the steel sector demonstrates both the promise and the complexity of aligning climate policy with global trade. CBAM is not simply a tariff or a compliance tool. It is a signal that the decarbonization of heavy industry is no longer optional but integral to economic competitiveness in Europe’s low-carbon future.

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